Tuesday, July 24, 2007

AAPL: iPhone demand declining?

I noted today from notablecalls that CIBC analyst is out with a comment this morning, citing declining demand for apple iphone over last 10 days. iPhone is seen to spur flash as well as ASIC demand for semiconductor sector so if he is right, this does not bode well for semiconudctor sector. Personally I think APPL iPhone is a game changing device. It will be a long term winner. But with so much worry about economy weakening due to credit problem and high energy price, I wonder whether continued demand for iphone that costs anywhere between $499 to $599 will be a hot seeling item after initiaL demand subsides. I am not making any statement here. Just a thought.

Following is the excerpts from notablecalls

Apple NASDAQ:AAPL: According to CIBC iPhone has seen a significant decline

- CIBC's Ittai Kidron is out with monster call on Apple NASDAQ:AAPL saying based on their store checks, they believe that demand for the iPhone has seen a significant decline in the past 10 days. CIBC has noticed decent inventories at stores, and thin demand at best. In fact, most Apple store visitors were not looking at the device and only a very small subset bought it.

With the weakness, they wouldn't be surprised to see AT&T and Apple step up their marketing efforts. Firm's channel checks suggest Apple is actually looking to introduce a 3G version of the iPhone for the U.S. market in November, ahead of the holiday season and earlier than currently expected.

Recent survey of iPhone buyers suggested that the key shortcoming of the current device is its poor data connectivity. This isn't a surprise and Apple's CEO Steve Jobs admitted the iPhone's cellular connectivity can use an improvement. CIBC now believes the "improvement" could come soon.

Notablecalls: AAPL stock is going to get hit today. Big time! Positive iPhone flow has driven AAPL up 50 bucks over the past months. CIBC's call will erase some of this. I expect to see 5 bucks of downside today! Actionable call! Short at will!

PS: Note that ThinkEquity upped their tgt on Synchronoss NASDAQ:SNCR yesterday to $44 from $36 based on increased expectations for the iPhone. The stock was also added to Think's Top Picks list. SCNR has enjoyed a nice run, fueled by iPhone flow. I would not be surprised to see weakness in SCNR following CIBC's call.


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