I noted today from notablecalls that CIBC analyst is out with a comment this morning, citing declining demand for apple iphone over last 10 days. iPhone is seen to spur flash as well as ASIC demand for semiconductor sector so if he is right, this does not bode well for semiconudctor sector. Personally I think APPL iPhone is a game changing device. It will be a long term winner. But with so much worry about economy weakening due to credit problem and high energy price, I wonder whether continued demand for iphone that costs anywhere between $499 to $599 will be a hot seeling item after initiaL demand subsides. I am not making any statement here. Just a thought.
Following is the excerpts from notablecalls
Apple NASDAQ:AAPL: According to CIBC iPhone has seen a significant decline
- CIBC's Ittai Kidron is out with monster call on Apple NASDAQ:AAPL saying based on their store checks, they believe that demand for the iPhone has seen a significant decline in the past 10 days. CIBC has noticed decent inventories at stores, and thin demand at best. In fact, most Apple store visitors were not looking at the device and only a very small subset bought it.
With the weakness, they wouldn't be surprised to see AT&T and Apple step up their marketing efforts. Firm's channel checks suggest Apple is actually looking to introduce a 3G version of the iPhone for the U.S. market in November, ahead of the holiday season and earlier than currently expected.
Recent survey of iPhone buyers suggested that the key shortcoming of the current device is its poor data connectivity. This isn't a surprise and Apple's CEO Steve Jobs admitted the iPhone's cellular connectivity can use an improvement. CIBC now believes the "improvement" could come soon.
Notablecalls: AAPL stock is going to get hit today. Big time! Positive iPhone flow has driven AAPL up 50 bucks over the past months. CIBC's call will erase some of this. I expect to see 5 bucks of downside today! Actionable call! Short at will!
PS: Note that ThinkEquity upped their tgt on Synchronoss NASDAQ:SNCR yesterday to $44 from $36 based on increased expectations for the iPhone. The stock was also added to Think's Top Picks list. SCNR has enjoyed a nice run, fueled by iPhone flow. I would not be surprised to see weakness in SCNR following CIBC's call.
The current stocks in that I cover are: Filthy Rich Tech ideas (comprised of Openwave, Avid Technology, Tivo, IBM, and Research in Motion), Filthy Rich Biotech ideas (comprised of Amgen, Celgene, Genzyme, Isis pharmaceuticals, Alnylam pharmaceutical, and Protein Design Lab), Filthy Rich Financial ideas (JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs), Filthy Rich China ideas (Focus Media Holding and Ctrip.com), Filthy Rich Transportation ideas ( American Airline and Southwest Airline), and Filthy Rich Specialty Retail ideas (Peet's coffee)
Please check out the archives for past posting on individual stocks. Also market commentary and weekly communication on the core holding list are available at www.investorhives.com on a membership basis. The membership is free for everyone. Simply apply for filthyrich hive membership at www.investorhives.com. Thank you for visiting my blog.
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
ISIS; Positive comments from Changewave investing newsletter
ISIS: Positive comments from Tobin Smith on his latest weekly update of Changewave Investing Newsletter.
Tobin Smith (a regular guest on bulls and bears on Fox) had the following comments on ISIS, following ALNY's deal with Roche. His target for ISIS remains at $20, which happens to be also Lehman's. I expect biotechs to outshine again towards ASH in early winter. If the atmosphere is right, I believe ISIS can trade above $20.
ISIS PHARMACEUTICALS (ISIS)
Isis Pharmaceuticals announced that it will receive $26.5 million from Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) as its portion of the upfront fees and equity premium in the recently announced transaction between Roche Holding AG and Alnylam. In addition, Isis has the potential to receive milestone and royalty payments. This transaction underscores the value of Isis' innovation and the leadership role Isis has played in the field of nucleic-acid-based therapeutics. The close of the agreement is subject to certain regulatory approvals and is expected to occur within approximately 30 days.
OUR TAKE: The Alnylam deal with Roche has three major takeaways:
1) This agreement further validates the potential of RNA-based therapeutics becoming a major class of drugs and the excitement that large pharma has for the platform;
2) ISIS is well-positioned with its 2004 deal with ALNY to reap benefits from RNAi through substantial royalty payments from ALNY;
3) The Roche-Alnylam deal increases the probability that ISIS will be able to partner their broader drug ISIS301012 on extremely attractive terms.
Again, if big pharma wants to get a leg up on the major new emerging therapeutic world, my best guess is that Roche takes out ISIS for $20 per share.
The current stocks in that I cover are: Filthy Rich Tech ideas (comprised of Openwave, Avid Technology, Tivo, IBM, and Research in Motion), Filthy Rich Biotech ideas (comprised of Amgen, Celgene, Genzyme, Isis pharmaceuticals, Alnylam pharmaceutical, and Protein Design Lab), Filthy Rich Financial ideas (JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs), Filthy Rich China ideas (Focus Media Holding and Ctrip.com), Filthy Rich Transportation ideas ( American Airline and Southwest Airline), and Filthy Rich Specialty Retail ideas (Peet's coffee)
Please check out the archives for past posting on individual stocks. Also market commentary and weekly communication on the core holding list are available at www.investorhives.com on a membership basis. The membership is free for everyone. Simply apply for filthyrich hive membership at www.investorhives.com. Thank you for visiting my blog.
Tobin Smith (a regular guest on bulls and bears on Fox) had the following comments on ISIS, following ALNY's deal with Roche. His target for ISIS remains at $20, which happens to be also Lehman's. I expect biotechs to outshine again towards ASH in early winter. If the atmosphere is right, I believe ISIS can trade above $20.
ISIS PHARMACEUTICALS (ISIS)
Isis Pharmaceuticals announced that it will receive $26.5 million from Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) as its portion of the upfront fees and equity premium in the recently announced transaction between Roche Holding AG and Alnylam. In addition, Isis has the potential to receive milestone and royalty payments. This transaction underscores the value of Isis' innovation and the leadership role Isis has played in the field of nucleic-acid-based therapeutics. The close of the agreement is subject to certain regulatory approvals and is expected to occur within approximately 30 days.
OUR TAKE: The Alnylam deal with Roche has three major takeaways:
1) This agreement further validates the potential of RNA-based therapeutics becoming a major class of drugs and the excitement that large pharma has for the platform;
2) ISIS is well-positioned with its 2004 deal with ALNY to reap benefits from RNAi through substantial royalty payments from ALNY;
3) The Roche-Alnylam deal increases the probability that ISIS will be able to partner their broader drug ISIS301012 on extremely attractive terms.
Again, if big pharma wants to get a leg up on the major new emerging therapeutic world, my best guess is that Roche takes out ISIS for $20 per share.
The current stocks in that I cover are: Filthy Rich Tech ideas (comprised of Openwave, Avid Technology, Tivo, IBM, and Research in Motion), Filthy Rich Biotech ideas (comprised of Amgen, Celgene, Genzyme, Isis pharmaceuticals, Alnylam pharmaceutical, and Protein Design Lab), Filthy Rich Financial ideas (JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs), Filthy Rich China ideas (Focus Media Holding and Ctrip.com), Filthy Rich Transportation ideas ( American Airline and Southwest Airline), and Filthy Rich Specialty Retail ideas (Peet's coffee)
Please check out the archives for past posting on individual stocks. Also market commentary and weekly communication on the core holding list are available at www.investorhives.com on a membership basis. The membership is free for everyone. Simply apply for filthyrich hive membership at www.investorhives.com. Thank you for visiting my blog.
Monday, July 09, 2007
ISIS: Lehman out with positive statement
Lehman is out with positive statement on ISIS, following ALNY megabuster deal with Roche. Last year, Merck paid $1.1 billion for small RNAi company Sirna. And today's ALNY deal that could surpass 1 billion (it is not an acquisition but merely non-exclusive licensing deal) clearly validates the RNA technology as one of the most sought after and promising areas for next generation drug development.
ISIS provides ALNY with exclusive license to ISIS IP for double stranded RNAi technology and as ALNY achieves major milestone with Roche, ISIS is likely to leap more revenue from ALNY's deal with Roche.
Lehman points out the extremely attractive pipeline of ISIS and thinks that pipeline platform value well exceeds the current valuation. The firm has $20 target on the company which represent near 90% gain from the current level.
ISIS got tremendous efficacy data on phase 2 trial on its ISIS 301012 to lower bad cholesterol (LDL) without significant long term side effects. This is highly prized market by the large pharma as big pharma had major setbacks in producing effective LDL lowering drugs without safety issues. In addition, ISIS 325568 and 377131 seems to be very promising in diabetes market, which is one of the largest healthcare market. Lehman point out that ISIS had received significant interest from the potential partners on 301012 and the company started a competitive ¡°auction process¡±. In my opinion, this company will not be a standalone company. Small companies in RNA space will be gobbled up by large biotech and pharma companies. As one of the most potent IP in RNA antisense technology, ISIS is a prime take-out target with substantial premium. Definitely recommends purchase of ISIS shares at current valuation.
The current stocks in that I cover are: Filthy Rich Tech ideas (comprised of Openwave, Avid Technology, Tivo, IBM, and Research in Motion), Filthy Rich Biotech ideas (comprised of Amgen, Celgene, Genzyme, Isis pharmaceuticals, Alnylam pharmaceutical, and Protein Design Lab), Filthy Rich Financial ideas (JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs), Filthy Rich China ideas (Focus Media Holding and Ctrip.com), Filthy Rich Transportation ideas ( American Airline and Southwest Airline), and Filthy Rich Specialty Retail ideas (Peet's coffee)
Please check out the archives for past posting on individual stocks. Also market commentary and weekly communication on the core holding list are available at www.investorhives.com on a membership basis. The membership is free for everyone. Simply apply for filthyrich hive membership at www.investorhives.com. Thank you for visiting my blog.
ISIS provides ALNY with exclusive license to ISIS IP for double stranded RNAi technology and as ALNY achieves major milestone with Roche, ISIS is likely to leap more revenue from ALNY's deal with Roche.
Lehman points out the extremely attractive pipeline of ISIS and thinks that pipeline platform value well exceeds the current valuation. The firm has $20 target on the company which represent near 90% gain from the current level.
ISIS got tremendous efficacy data on phase 2 trial on its ISIS 301012 to lower bad cholesterol (LDL) without significant long term side effects. This is highly prized market by the large pharma as big pharma had major setbacks in producing effective LDL lowering drugs without safety issues. In addition, ISIS 325568 and 377131 seems to be very promising in diabetes market, which is one of the largest healthcare market. Lehman point out that ISIS had received significant interest from the potential partners on 301012 and the company started a competitive ¡°auction process¡±. In my opinion, this company will not be a standalone company. Small companies in RNA space will be gobbled up by large biotech and pharma companies. As one of the most potent IP in RNA antisense technology, ISIS is a prime take-out target with substantial premium. Definitely recommends purchase of ISIS shares at current valuation.
The current stocks in that I cover are: Filthy Rich Tech ideas (comprised of Openwave, Avid Technology, Tivo, IBM, and Research in Motion), Filthy Rich Biotech ideas (comprised of Amgen, Celgene, Genzyme, Isis pharmaceuticals, Alnylam pharmaceutical, and Protein Design Lab), Filthy Rich Financial ideas (JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs), Filthy Rich China ideas (Focus Media Holding and Ctrip.com), Filthy Rich Transportation ideas ( American Airline and Southwest Airline), and Filthy Rich Specialty Retail ideas (Peet's coffee)
Please check out the archives for past posting on individual stocks. Also market commentary and weekly communication on the core holding list are available at www.investorhives.com on a membership basis. The membership is free for everyone. Simply apply for filthyrich hive membership at www.investorhives.com. Thank you for visiting my blog.
ALNY: ALNY hits a huge deal with Roche.
RNA drug development area is hitting up. One of our speculative RNA play ALNY has hit a major deal with major German pharmaceutical company Roche. According to the press release, Roche is paying 331 million in cash for ALNY to develop drug based on its RNA interference technology. Also Roche is taking major equity stake, paying $21.50 for ALNY's near 2 million shares. ALNY is currently trading at slightly above $15 so this deal represents 40% premium to the current share price. ALNY has slightly more than 37 million shares outstanding so Roche stake will be roughly more than 5% of the total shares. In addition, ALNY's market cap stands at 570 mil so this deal roughly valued at 1 billion is huge indeed. This deal clearly again validates RNA technology in developing next generation drugs and big pharmas are seeing definite interest in this field. I expect ALNY to trade up on this news. I believe that companies in the area will not be left alone and big pharmas are likely to acquire several of these companies at a hefty premium. I would not surprised ALNY doubles from here. Just above $15 presents outstanding entry point. However, do remember this is a speculative play. The company currently does not generate positive cash flow nor positive net income on GAAP basis.
ALNY has probably the best IP portfolio in RNA technology area. Merck took out Sirna at more than 70% premium to its share. With Roche paying hefty cash to develop drug, I would not be surprised if Roche acquires this company if the company is able to meet drug development milestones that are yet known to investors' communities.
ISIS, another our speculative biotech play based on RNA antisense technology is other company that is going to attract big pharma interest. While big biotech companies has been struggling of late due to increased safety requirement by FDA for drug approval and medicare reimbursement concern, small biotechs are receiving more investors' attention. For this reason, I want you guys to stay the course with ALNY and ISIS. If you don't have any exposure, it would not be a bad idea to expose small percentage of your investment portfolio to ALNY and ISIS.
The current stocks in that I cover are: Filthy Rich Tech ideas (comprised of Openwave, Avid Technology, Tivo, IBM, and Research in Motion), Filthy Rich Biotech ideas (comprised of Amgen, Celgene, Genzyme, Isis pharmaceuticals, Alnylam pharmaceutical, and Protein Design Lab), Filthy Rich Financial ideas (JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs), Filthy Rich China ideas (Focus Media Holding and Ctrip.com), Filthy Rich Transportation ideas ( American Airline and Southwest Airline), and Filthy Rich Specialty Retail ideas (Peet's coffee)
Please check out the archives for past posting on individual stocks. Also market commentary and weekly communication on the core holding list are available at www.investorhives.com on a membership basis. The membership is free for everyone. Simply apply for filthyrich hive membership at www.investorhives.com. Thank you for visiting my blog.
ALNY has probably the best IP portfolio in RNA technology area. Merck took out Sirna at more than 70% premium to its share. With Roche paying hefty cash to develop drug, I would not be surprised if Roche acquires this company if the company is able to meet drug development milestones that are yet known to investors' communities.
ISIS, another our speculative biotech play based on RNA antisense technology is other company that is going to attract big pharma interest. While big biotech companies has been struggling of late due to increased safety requirement by FDA for drug approval and medicare reimbursement concern, small biotechs are receiving more investors' attention. For this reason, I want you guys to stay the course with ALNY and ISIS. If you don't have any exposure, it would not be a bad idea to expose small percentage of your investment portfolio to ALNY and ISIS.
The current stocks in that I cover are: Filthy Rich Tech ideas (comprised of Openwave, Avid Technology, Tivo, IBM, and Research in Motion), Filthy Rich Biotech ideas (comprised of Amgen, Celgene, Genzyme, Isis pharmaceuticals, Alnylam pharmaceutical, and Protein Design Lab), Filthy Rich Financial ideas (JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs), Filthy Rich China ideas (Focus Media Holding and Ctrip.com), Filthy Rich Transportation ideas ( American Airline and Southwest Airline), and Filthy Rich Specialty Retail ideas (Peet's coffee)
Please check out the archives for past posting on individual stocks. Also market commentary and weekly communication on the core holding list are available at www.investorhives.com on a membership basis. The membership is free for everyone. Simply apply for filthyrich hive membership at www.investorhives.com. Thank you for visiting my blog.
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